Golf best bets: Long shots to target at the Texas Children's Houston Open

PGA Tour long shots continue to be profitable for us in the finishing position markets. At last week's Valspar Championship, we cashed Scott Stallings to finish top 20 (+650) and top 40 (+210) and Sam Ryder to finish top 40 (+110). That's our third straight winning week in long shots, and we're looking to keep the profit train rolling at the Texas Children's Houston Open.

Here are the two long shots we're targeting with outright and finishing position bets this week.

Joseph Bramlett (+15000 FanDuel)

Joseph Bramlett is quietly playing solid all-around golf to start the 2024 season. The 35-year-old is gaining strokes in all four major categories (off the tee, approaching the green, around the green, putting) through eight starts, which is something most elite players can't say about their games. 

Where Bramlett really shines is off the tee, as he ranks 14th on the PGA Tour this season in driving distance. Memorial Park Golf Course is a long track at 7,400 yards, so the bigger hitters will have a distinct advantage this week. Bramlett finished T9 at the Houston Open last year while ranking fifth in the field in strokes gained from tee to green. He's also coming off a T17 finish at the Valspar Championship last week.

Bramlett's strong course history and recent form make him an enticing long shot in Houston. 

Top-20 finish: +360
Top-40 finish: +165

Aaron Baddeley (+30000 FD)

We cashed some huge prices on Stallings last week, so we're going right back to the 300/1 range at the Houston Open.

Aaron Baddeley isn't a great fit for Memorial Park because he doesn't hit it long off the tee and struggles with his irons, but his short game has been elite to start the season. The Australian ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from putting and second in scrambling percentage. He's also 19th in bogey avoidance, which will be crucial this week on a tough golf course that doesn't surrender many birdies. 

Baddeley has finished T23 and T18 in his last two starts in Texas, gaining strokes with his chipping and putting in both. The veteran may not be able to go low on this golf course, but he can save par from difficult spots and make momentum-saving putts all week. That might just be enough for a top-20 finish.

Top-20 finish: +600
Top-40 finish: +200