Golf best bets: Expert picks for the Texas Children's Houston Open 

Houston Open Best Bets 2024: Expert PGA Tour Picks

Nate Lashley Top 20 +550 (bet365)

By Spencer Aguiar

Nate Lashley's range of outcomes was the widest of any golfer I had in my model. I always note how pushing that outlook further up the board when making a placement wager is the better strategy over trying to play things safe. That was my preferred route to enter the mix for a board that didn't have any matchup wagers that garnered the usual three-percent edge I am looking for to recommend it as a wager.

You will hear about my disdain for this tournament several times on this week's Links + Locks Tournament Preview podcast when that drops early Wednesday morning. Still, poor pricing and the change in the month for the event (from November to March) had books shade away from any real exposure chances in Houston.

Lashley has no floor to speak of whatsoever, with four missed-cut appearances in his last six events, but his profile radiates top-20 potential when he does get into the weekend.

That was good enough value for me to take a shot at what I deemed to be a generous +550 price. Just realize that the floor is LOW!

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Si Woo Kim Top 20 +150 (bet365)

By Matt Gannon

Si Woo Kim has been on an absolute ball-striking tear over the last few months. He is coming off a start at THE PLAYERS where he gained strokes in every category, which shows his game is in a great spot. In this event last season, Kim gained over eight strokes on Approach. He has his spots in which he gets scorching hot each and every year.

We do not have enough data on him at Memorial Park (with him playing in two of the only three PGA Tour events here in recent memory), so it could be a great trend to get ahead of. He currently lives in Dallas, so he is used to playing in Texas conditions. I believe he is live to win this week, so finishing in the top 20 should be no problem for the youngest ever winner of THE PLAYERS.

Rafael Campos Top 20 +650 (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Obviously, this field is extremely top heavy. However, after about the top-dozen golfers, this field really opens up.

Once you get past those first 13 golfers, the field really starts to nosedive, and this creates a lot of valuable opportunities to look at longer prices in the top-20 market as there is a massive range of people that can sneak in there. Consequently, it should be no surprise that Spencer and Matt have both joined me in attacking this top-20 market.

That brings me to Rafael Campos, a golfer who is an underrated ball-striker and ranks 13th on Tour this season in Greens in Regulation percentage. He’s utilized this accuracy to post some strong results recently, finishing in a tie for 18th at the Puerto Rico Open and a tie for 20th at the Farmers Insurance Open.

At +650, I think it’s worth a shot that Campos finishes inside the top 20 for the third time over his past six tournaments.

Houston Open Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Spencer Aguiar: Scottie Scheffler +300
• Matt Gannon: Will Zalatoris +2000
• Tony Sartori: Wyndham Clark +1400

Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Nate Lashley 250-1
• Gannon: Chris Gotterup 175-1
• Sartori: Billy Horschel +6500

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Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Cameron Champ 120-1
• Gannon: Tom Hoge +5500
• Sartori: Sahith Theegala +2000

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Max Greyserman 250-1
• Gannon: Jason Day +2400
• Sartori: Alex Noren +4000

Trend That Guides Your Houston Open Betting Strategy

Aguiar: The move from November to March gives Memorial Park a different outlook for those running numbers for the event this week.

Sure, the primary blueprint for one of Tom Doak's designs will always be his distinctive green complexes. That remains front and center when diving into the over five-percent increase in scoring dispersion regarding Strokes Gained: Around the Green. However, how much ease do we get in that area because of the Poa trivialis overseeded (over dormant Bermuda)?

I still believe Doak is diabolical enough with his typical green complexes to combat that situation, but it is a metric worth noting since weeks like this could easily be altered from the normal output.

Gannon: Memorial Park is a golf course where golfers need to have the entire bag working, but there is a clear part of the game that trumps all. If golfers are not driving the ball both long and straight on this track, they will get lapped. Elite drivers have headlined the leaderboards from each of the last three tournaments here in Houston.

Of course, long iron play and middle iron play will be important here, but keying in on driving is paramount. You can be the best iron player in the world (Tom Hoge), but if you are driving the ball offline or lack distance, you can find yourself in danger of missing the cut.

Total Driving and tougher course condition history are two very important stats this week, so that is what I will emphasize while handicapping the 2024 Houston Open.

Sartori: I’m looking for guys who can hit greens at a high rate this week. While hitting greens is an obvious key for success at any venue, this need to land safely on the approach is amplified at Memorial Park due to the creativity and accuracy required to navigate this difficult course.

Simply by hitting greens in regulation, golfers gain a step on the opposition. Last season, each of the top-three finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in GIR%, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.

Getting even more specific, you want to look for accurate ball-strikers from the 150-175 yard range, considering that is where the largest distribution of approach shots here came from (17.6%) when this event was last played in November 2022.